hold packages at any fedex office location. on friday we told you that coffee prices were dropping. now, jane wells, the lady who i think knows a thing or two about this, you're here with an update for us, and it's some good news, right? >> yes, mandy. the best part of waking up is cheaper folgers in your cup, and as coffee prices fall again today, james schmuckers it will pass along the savings to you by about 6%. of course, coffee fell over 30%

and continues to slide in 2013 due to good weather and an expected abundant crop. k-cup helped boost earnings as shares hate 52-week high. of course, the k-cucut in price asked about whether they will match that. the tico times out of costa rica, which i read regularly says there's a rust fungus in central america which could have a huge impact on the coffee crop. the news says costa rica has declared a state of emergency with 35% of the crop lost. nicaragua has lost 40% and guatemala 60%. guatemala, one of the top ten coffee producers in the world. >> jane. got to leave it there. fascinating story. thank you very much. thanks for watching "street signs," everybody. >> "closing bell" is next. hi, everybody.

we head to the final stretch. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo. stocks are higher again. s&p 500 trying to open up the week with eight consecutive weekly gains, never happened since the s&p was created in 1950. >> happy 62nd birthday, i don't know, something with the s& don't have many home runs in the market but just hitting singles and keep you go the score. i'm bill grittive. the dow and s&p are touching five-year highs fueled by reports of yet another merger. this one now involving office max and office depot. they are in merger talks, all on the heels of last week's big merger news that included american airlines, u.s. airways and h.j. heinz. the wheels continue to turn. >> really do. we'll talk about deals. one of the big deal-makers on the show today. don't look now, but $5 gas is becoming a reality in one part of the country. we'll talk about whether spiking gasoline prices to be the big threat to the economy right now. >> i knew i should have filled up yesterday. this is going to keep going up. a pair of big earnings coming your way at the top of the hour.

dell and herbalife both set to report. we'll have instant analysis of all those numbers right here on the "closing bell." >> before all that, let's check the markets here as we approach this final hour for the day. the dow jones industrial average up 45 points. just shy of the high of the day. about a third of the% higher at 13,426. nasdaq also strong and technology one of the winners. certainly the nasdaq up a half a percent and the s&p 500 looks like this. take a look. similar chart pattern, just shy of the high of the gain with a gain on the standard & poor's of nine points. >> the s&p coming off an historic week after ending a seventh weekly win, gain. the last time the index opened the year was seven consecutive weekly gains. was in 1967. plus, the dow right now is closing in on its all-time high. roughly we're a little less than 150 points away right now and holding above 14,000 so far. >> in today's closing bell exchange our guests.

good to see everybody. >> welcome, everybody. thanks for joining us. >> jonathan, let me kick it off with you. what do you make of this market? do you want to put money to work or no? >> the trend is your friend here. everybody is watching this market go higher and higher and little by little everybody is on the sidelines and getting back in. i thought the three-day weekend would quiet down our market, so to speak. not a lot of economic data last week. a holiday week this week. a really great opportunity for investors to do their homework and see where they wants to go. it seems like this marketil coin tmogh. ehiha think might get us o track here is the unemployment numbers. alwaysook at that at the end of the month and more and more whispers are leading that this number is not moving in the right direction. m & a news, sparks a lot of news in our market, and when you start to see that the money does come back in. >> we wonder what the next catalyst will be to move the market one way or another with some vigor and, carol, you still

don't like the risk/reward ratio for the market but as long as it's going high you're going to hang in there, yes in. >> the issue is the risk/reward balance is out of whack for me. the catalyst that can move this market higher versus the one bad news that could bring it lower. to me that is just out of whack so i feel like as long as there's no news, that is good news for the market. you've got the fed. you've got nowhere else to put the money, but i would be smart and selective, and i think the m & a deals looking at candidates and potential strategic candidates are the way to go versus playing the broader market. >> you have to believe that the deal flow continues, josh lipton, given the fact that funding rates are still at rock bottom levels. a lot of cash on balance sheets. what are you seeing out there in terms of deals? >> yeah, that's true, maria. a low interest rate world. slow growth. companies sitting on a lot of cash so it's not unreasonable to think investment bankers will be pretty business the next couple of months. carol has a background in there

and thinks we'll see a pickup in m & a activity. there's a couple of sectors you would expect tha activity in, food and beverage, retail. what are the profiles of candidates that you think would best fit that? >> you have to look at a candidate, first of all, trading at a discount in terms of its ebitda multiple at least to the comp group or to its historical average. on top of that, especially if you're looking for something that's going to be bought out, you want something that has low net debt. maybe one and a half times, two times top, because the catalyst for doing these deals is leveraging up. we've got a cheap credit rate environment, as we said, so you want to be able to put cash to work and to be affect the buyouts. what i will say is be cautious though. some of the ones that look good on paper may have a really high concentration of inside ownership, and unless those people are on board with the deal, that could be an impediment. >> rick santelli, what's on your radar today? a lot of economic data coming up. not much in the way of supply

though from the government. >> no, but tomorrow is a big day. we have inflation, ppi. we have housing starts and permits. the minutes to the 29th and 30th fed meeting. if you look at intraday charts of 10s and 30s, pretty much taking a hammock kind ofs. >> reporter: until -- kind of s and you can clearly say we moved up a bit. we're hovering in the 10s and 30s with new high closes going back to april. still not there yet. i know you said it was the best start since 1967. in 1967, bill, the dow went from about 780 to 900, and they did all that when interest rates started out the year around 4.5, ending up very close to 6%. boy, hey, carol, where do you think the stock market rally would go if we had those interest rates today? >> oh, boy. that would be something, wouldn't it? >> well, i mean, you would think we will eventually.

the fed is going to have tighten the reins at some point, right? jonathan? what do you think? >> i don't know if they are tightening reins. >> not at any time soon. >> it will take a long time for that to happen. go back two years ago and we were having theame conversation. everybody was talking about interest rates? when would interest rates go higher? fomc comment coming out this week. no way they will tip their hand as to any kind of outlook or date or scope as to when interest rates will change. to get back to what josh was saying earlier before about balance sheets, too. a lot of cash on hands in these companies, if we don't see m & a activity we'll see more company buybacks. >> let me ask my good friend john. there's unease out there, a blistering run to start this year and every day my in box, a strategist comes up with some metric he's looking at to tell him or her when the finance is coming. there's sentiment indicators. is there something you're looking at, john, even a pullback or correction could be

here? is there a metric or gauge you're watching? >> no real metric or no real gauge. what i've got is the great ability to have is a great network of customers and clients that i talked to and there are small hedge funds, large hedge funds. talk a lot about my clients and customers to get a gauge what have they are hearing, and what they are hearing and saying now is you cannot fooilt fight this at this point. tread lightly. still stay in it, but you've got to make sure you're not going to be left behind. >> what about being left behind when rates start moving higher? if the fed starts backpedaling out of qe3 the end of this year or sometime next year, when do you think the markets get a hint of this and start responding to it? >> i think it will take more time for that. another two, three quarters of that until we might see a glimpse in terms of what the fed is thinking. >> meanwhile, are you buying anything, carol, here, or are you just hanging on? >> i am. i'm doing a lot of research into these potential lbo types of candidates, so i do own long auto zoned a bed, bath & beyond

as potential candidates that could be appealing for a strategist or financial buyer. i also want to mention something as we were talking about high yield. i would be very careful with high yields here, too, because as more debt keeps getting piled on, those rates that are now at 6%, i don't think the risk/reward balance there makes a whole lot of sense either. >> all right. got to be selective. >> thank you, folks. >> thank you. >> talk to you all later. thanks for joining us. meantime, if you haven't heard. apple has become the latest hacking victim. jon fortt has details on this still developing story. john jon. >> what's so unusual about this story is how officials are saying how hackers got to our front gate. apple is saying the same job vulnerability that hackers use to snoop around facebook employee computers, allowed hackers to infect some apple employee machines. apple says it was able to quarantine the affected computers from the network and has no information that the hackers actually got any doubta

out. apple has released a patching saying they will keep them from use the same trick to snoop around your computer and the company points out it's got the ability to shut down your mac any time it hears a new vulnerability has popped up. this isn't the end of the story. there will be continuing java vulnerabilities and what's happening here is these are very sophisticated digital burglars going after the highest end digital addresses on earth. >> half an hour left in the trading session. the dow up about 50 points, holding above 14,000. that's a number to keep an eye on. >> coming up, a legacy in the music business. discovered and recorded everyone from whitney houston to ae aerosmith and bruce springsteen. clive davis is here and will ring the closing bell, but before that we'll talk to him about the soundtrack of his life. >> looking forward to talk to him. what's the worst investment call of 2013 so far?

less than two months into the year, but there are already some major misfires in this market. tweet us your thoughts on that @cnbcclosingbell. >> sherry and bourbon drinkers alike are happy about this news today, especially bill. >> the consumer does have a say after all. i like that. ♪ [ male announcer ] when we built the cadillac ats from the ground up to be the world's best sport sedan... ♪ ...people noticed. ♪ the all-new cadillac ats -- 2013 north american car of the year.

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easier than actually going to the bank. mobile check deposit. easier banking. standard at citibank. welcome back. we are here with clive davis. he has rocked and rallied with some of the biggest stars in the music business. >> you name a singer, and clive brought them in, springsteen, aerosmith, of course, whitney houston was big. janis joplin, you go back that far to that time. >> and you've seen an enormous change in the music business over this time. talk to us about that. i know it's all in the book. >> not only the technological changes, but basically the basic principles are the same. you've got to discover the stars of tomorrow that could be headliners. that could have long-lasting careers, and then you've got to get word out to the public so that, yes, you're using the web.

you're using more media. >> but the distribution has changed which it has. the technology has changed so much. how has that changed your business in terms of finding these stars and selling the public? >> i'm telling you from where i sit the business is the same, that you get it from more sources, but what you look for and how you appraise it is the same. >> but the way -- a singer will be paid has changed greatly. i mean, they have had to fight for their pay through some of these pay services online, right? actually going on tours in many ways is more lucrative than selling records. >> that's only because of piracy and the number of album sales has diminished so except for adele and mumford & sons, you find that the public, you know, unfortunately, we're dealing with piracy, so album sales are being affected. but there's no question the

royalty rates are the same. it's different now. it remains to be seen on the subscription services. >> do you agree that the music industry is to blame to some degree for being behind the curve on technology? when it came to some of these music services that came online and were giving away music for free. >> we were only to blame for bringing they ingation. the truth is it's illegal, and the music is not for free, and the foundation of our capitalistic wonderful system is that you pay the creators for their services, so piracy is wrong. illegality is clearly wrong, and that's affected us. >> how due well it? how do you -- we're all trying to fight piracy. >> we're now bringing all the resources. we're trying to get washington. we're trying to get laws passed and make the enforcement much more vigilant and, you know, what seems tough is not tough. it's getting paid for what the

creators are doing. >> especially when you have generations out there who think that music is free. >> that is terrible. >> just terrible. >> this have to be re-educated in that regard. when i watched the grammys, love watching the grammys, and i saw you sitting there in the audience at the staples center. it seems like country and urban are so hot these days, are the hot trends. is there anything in the middle these days? >> adele is in the middle and mumford & sons are in the middle and the lumineers are in the middle. so the last year there's definitely been a return, hopefully, to broaden not just your observation is right. urban and country are very, very strong, but clearly the biggest selling artist of the last five or ten years is adele. >> and how do you know when something is going to be a commercial hit? >> you've got the golden gut. >> the phones light up at radio and the digital sales often explode. >> but before that. i mean, how do you know to get

behind someone, when you just know that this person may or may not have it? >> to me it's at the signing level. you've got to work at the you've got to prove it level, to work from you take nothing for granted. whether it was whitney or alicia or any the atists that i've signed. you've got to work and earn it, and then hopefully it explodes. >> the name of the book is "the soundtrack of my life. "it's been the buzz all day today. what was it like putting that together? i mean, going back and mining all of those great memories that you have in this industry? >> it, first of all, was hard to believe that all of that took place. i mean, from joplin and springsteen and then we go to santana and earth, wind & fire and then arista with barry manilow and the grateful dead and whitney and aretha. yes, it's been wonderful in recounting the stories, the anecdotes. this is not a trade book.

you can learn business, but you can learn -- if you love music, if you want to be any part of music, you'll want to hear those anecdotes that the queen of soul is a real person and that whitney -- her passion for music was so great, and that's not been written about. i think i tell the full story that goes to -- "american idol," i was there for the first seven years and validated the recording contracts that led, you know, to carrie underwood and kelly clarkson. >> make a great point actually. how important are things like that, the new singing shows, the reality shows of choosing these stars? how important are the grammys today to encourage even more sales beyond the first hit? >> i think first it's the grammys. the grammys in the last two years have been the largest really almost in history. last year because of whitney's tragic death, you know, it was 28 million. 39 million.

this year still at 28 million. it was heads and shoulders, right up there right with the oscars as the best watched awards show. the reality, i believed in it from the beginning. i've got two chapters in my book on it, and i believe, you know, that i would use the same principle that i found on every barry manilow album, every song that whitney used and ever recorded. i went to those writers, and i took very seriously the responsibility of finding material for the winners, and we had huge multi-platinum albums, and it made the prize for "american idol" such a valuable one. >> terrific. congratulations, clive. great to have you on the program. >> the book, "the soundtrack of my life". >> probably never anybody like clive davis or never will be out there, right? >> it touches me, as of today.

because i've never rung this bell before. >> very exciting. >> thank you, clive. let's get to bob pisani watching these markets today. >> hanging in there, bob. >> what fun talking to clive davis. he autographed my cope out today right down the street. we're talking about the positive feedback loop, folks. that's because stocks are perceived to be the place to be right now, and the u.s. stock market is perceived to be the best of the markets to be in so we have historic highs. historic highs on the dow transports and mid-cap index. there's some cracks showing. a little bit concerned about the home builders. toppy for the last several weeks and more importantly i was quite surprised that the home builders sentiment out this week was rather weak. my concern was traffic, at least in the philadelphia area has been very strong, but the number was below expectations. all the home builders were down, and they tapped out several weeks ago. asked a lot about solar stocks. these stocks are the -- among the most heavily shorted on the

group. citigroup slapped a buy last week on a couple of big names. sun power and first solar, they have been taken off for the past four or five days. president obama spoke very heavily about solar stocks and alternative energy and referenced him again in his inaugural, and they have been up really since november. >> thanks, bob. a market that is rallying here. the market is 40 minutes before the closing bell sounds, and the market is higher, 52 points, and the s&p 500 showing a nice move on the upside, as you can see there. if you can't beat them, join them. best buy is set to begin price matching against online retailers. find out which shock you're better off with next? >> after a huge outcry from fans, including bill and myself, was this a marketing debacle like new coke or stroke of

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welcome back. shares of best buy getting a boost following two upgrades after the company announced it will permanently price match online competitors. the move is an effort to end showrooming where consumers check out a product in the store but then order it from an online competitor at a cheaper price. will it help, or are you better off with online rival amazon? talking numbers. on the technical side, richard

ross global technical strategist with auburn grayson and on the fundamentals abigail doolittle equity strategist and a cnbc contributor. good to see you both. kick us off here. rich, which chart looks better? >> let's start with best buy here. this stock is on an absolute tear, up 46% year-to-date picking it the second best performing stock in the s&p 500 trailing only netflix, ironically, a stock with no physical presence whatsoever. when you look at the chart, you see the decisive breakout from the head and shoulders bott toj. taken out the neckline of the average and taken it out in one fell swoop. stocks like heyman roth, i'll trust it but won't buy it. you can play the momentum from the long side. when you bring up amazon, different story. back in january the stock pushes out to a fresh all-time high on earnings, but that breakup failed and if you break below

262, you want to look out below. you'll test the 200-day at 240 and the 200 week at 173. i'm a better buyer of best buy at this point. >> abigail, what do you think? what's your view on fundamentals here in. >> the fundamentals, maria. i think rich has a great perspective on the technicals from the near term, but i think best buy is not going to be a best buy for investors over the long term especially when we look at amazon. this is turning into an online super star and consumers can buy things there than at brick and mortars. they show great success in the e-book space going forward. i think a big portion of the growth will come from amazon, bundling, to you-day free delivery. that will build customer loyalty. revenue, earnings, operating, cash flow all look good.

i think we'll see a near-term pullback but over the long term amazon is a really bullish chart. best buy -- >> i think in the short term here you have to think outside the box. you have to think outside the big box. back in the 1 '90s we said no one will need a physical bank branch when online branches came into play. >> i think that the online space, these base are actually going to continue to dominate. just starting to get going. three-year growth ine commerce, more than 36%, which is likely to it, and these online retailers really have an advantage that brick and mortar stores don't. margin advantages, informational advantages. they can gain information about the consumer before the consumer even starts shopping which helps brick brand loyalty and that will continue on the amazon long-term chart.

best buy this, company is playing in the u.s. electronic and appliance space, 5.5% growth and they are commodity pricing, and when you look at their numbers, earnings are going in the wrong direct. >> google is in the space and i think if office max and depot can come together, that's very attractive to somebody out there. >> best buy's debt is trading on the junk status so this company is not focused on both. they are forced to play defense. they need toer is visit that debt and that point to the lack of flexibility that the brick and model creates. i think that there's room for google, amazon and netflix. >> rethinking the experience.

obviously has created. obviousy will have that about but it's not about the change in business. target has done it and seers has, and you're seeing that today in the charts. >> i need to disagree on this one. i think they ear going into the low single digits and the junk debt is it theus, the operating cash in this country is really deteriorated. i want to look at the e-commerce rather than a best bay. >> hthank you. bill? >> the dow hanging on to a gain. up 14 points. >> office depot, office max, the latest companies getting the urge to merge. peter weinberg will mai on n on what's ahead.

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welcome back. well dig through earnings numbers. the report will be likely overshadowed by a proposed deal from michael dell and a pitch from investors to take the company private. >> here to talk about that deal and a preview of dell's results our own jon fortt and andrew tawnor. where does the deal stand in it's been criticized by high-profile shareholders for lowballing dell's value. >> it's on shaky ground. you can see multiple large institutional shareholders saying they are very much opposed to it and looking at the price that michael dell is proposing with this buyout i can't say that i blame him. >> what are you looking for in terms of talk, jon, today, in the earnings call in terms of talk about this deal? michael dell obviously hasn't

spoken about it and we haven't heard from the principles involved. they got to address it tonight, right? >> yeah. they got to be careful though. in a way dell doesn't want too big a surprise to the upside or the downside. >> right. >> if there's a downside surprise, people will wonder are they trying hard enough. if there's an upside surprise, then the opponents of this deal say here's the evidence they can grow the prices too low. interesting to see tone-wise how dell walks that line. also on guidance. it looks like the street is expecting somewhere around 13.6 billion for q1. usually there's a 77% sequentia decline. i wouldn't be surprised if based on history, if q1 is a little bit disappointing based on where analysts are right now >> you wonder, and i thought of the same thing, john, but andrew, to some degree you wonder if michael dell needs to

recuse himself from comments on the deal where when he's guy trying to affect the deal on the company he's running when he's got earnings that he has to bring out that could have an effect on the value of the deal he's got to get done. how is that all going to work out, do you think in. >> it's a complicated situation. you've got tons of vested interest here and disclosure, scrutiny as well so i'm not sure there's too much he can come out and say. talk of maybe having a special conference call with shareholders regarding specifically the buyout itself. you know, it will be interesting to see how much we get. i don't think people really have a great sense of what they will get, so, you know, definitely something to watch. >> so what are you expecting out of numbers? let's talk about the fundamental story of the pc business here. we know that mobility is dominant and there's so many more mobile phones as opposed to pcs. is the pc market dead. >> not dead, but not thriving. you see, dell's revenues are expected to shrink. maybe around 12%. the overall pc market is expected to decline here.

just dell cotton, a really tough situation whereas, you know, you tied 50% of your revenue to this market that's shrinking, you know, making that pivot sale like an ibm did years ago into a more enterprise business that dell wants to do. it just takes time, and the market really isn't going to appreciate that properly, and i think that's the logic and rationale behind the lbo here. >> right. >> so it should be a rough quarter. nobody really has any high expectations for it, and i think it's very justified. >> thank you. nice to see you. thanks for joining us. john, we'll see you at the top when the numbers do come out from dell. >> 20 minutes away from the "closing bell." markets holding on to gain. 20 point higher on the dow jones industrial average. >> i'm ready to take a victory lap. >> i know you are. >> i think the consumer should take the victory lap. maker's mark abandoning plans to water down its whiskey. lets the consumers do that if they want. now you can drink as much as you

want and not get another hangover. that's another thing you've got, the sober pill. wait until you hear that story coming up as well. >> and gasoline prices up for 32 straight days. 32 days in a row. $5 gasoline a reality in some parts of the country. not even close to the peak driving season of the summertime. find out if this pain at pump will create a real pain for the economy. that's coming up on the "closing bell." ♪ [ male announcer ] how do you engineer a true automotive breakthrough? ♪ you give it bold new styling, unsurpassed luxury and nearly 1,000 improvements. introducing the redesigned 2013 glk. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services. [ male announcer ] how could a luminous protein in jellyfish, impact life expectancy in the u.s., real estate in hong kong,

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here oats sour mesh scoreboard. after hearing of thousands of bourbon enthusiasts in less than one week, maker's mark will no longer try to stretch supplies of the famous bourbon by adding water. >> they announced on sunday that every bottle coming out of kentucky from now on will be back to the historic 90 proof as it should be, and there's a debate going on right now publicly, whether or not they intended for this just to be a publicity ploy, or whether it really was a pr stumble on their part to announce that they were trying to stretch the supply because demand has been so strong for their product. bourbon is very hot right now. >> who would do that? why would anybody want to pay up for maker's mark, a premium liquor, and then expect that

you're going to try to stretch it and water it down? terrible. >> i rarely look for -- for conspiracy, so i'm of the mind that they actually did stumble on this one. >> you think so? >> and they got their hand thinking to them. think new coke in that regard. for those who may return to enjoy maker's mark in its natural state. don't overdo it. drive and drink responsibly. don't do it at the same time, there is a new pill coming -- they are working on it at m.i.t. a pill that will reduce alcohol levels by using enseazymes that reduce your blood alcohol content. they are working on what calls a sober pill which calls a little bit too good to be true. >> why not drink less?

>> always the practical one. take another pill. >> i agree with that. all right. the dow is now just minutes away from closing above, we presume, the 14,000 level. josh lipton is rounding up the action as we head towards the close. >> hey there, bill. marching towards another close here. benchmark indexes moving higher and closing in on the all-time new highs. remember for the dow, that's 14,164. for the s&p 500 it's 1665. today the dow and s&p hitting fresh-time highs, all-time highs for mid-caps, small caps and transports. new all-time highs for big names, google, disney and 3-m, among others. in the s&p, big gainers including staples and sealed, a maker of bubble wrap which reported a better than expected expected and the big loser

humana. back to you guys. >> thanks very much. headed to the close. about 15 minutes left in the trading session here. as you see, the dow is up 48 points, holding above 14,000. >> what's the worst investment call so far for this year? >> well, i would say shorting it. >> jeff cox knows and he'll tell us what it is and why almost everybody got it wrong. that's next. >> and what do we want to know? >> what do you think is the worst call of the year? send us a tweet @cnbc. >> also, apple, get this, the latest victim of cyber hackers. is there any stopping these attacks, and just how much is the economy and your money at risk, we ask. we'll hear from one hacker later on the "closing bell." [ male announcer ] this is not my home.

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welcome back. nasdaq is doing well. let's get a big check on some technology movers with seema

modi over at the nasdaq right now. hi, seema. >> reporter: if the nasdaq can close above 3200, that's the level we're watching, if it can close above 3200 that's the first time in 12 years, since november of 2000 before the tech bubble burst, according to maxim group. a close above 3200 would confirm an up trend, a sustained move to the upside, a breakout, if you will, in the index. as you know, technology has been one of the key laggards of the year. since it in outperformance in financials, consumer staples and health care, but tech has been left behind and the reason the nasdaq is underperforming the major averages, but traders are suggesting that this could all change if the nasdaq is able to close above 3200 so that's a level to watch. google, of course, one of the stocks that's helping the nasdaq move higher, hitting an all-time high this morning above $804 a share. back over to you. >> seema, thank you so much. one investment call that strategists are talking about. rotation out of bonds into stocks but jeff cox says it's

the worst call of the year. >> he'll join us in a moment. also joining us with his thought on the markets is bill nichols, co-head of equities trading at cantor fitzgerald. you and i were just talking here. everybody shakes their head a little bit about the levels that these markets are at right now. they just don't want to give up, do they? >> steadily climbing higher. i mean, you saw the baron's front page article about why not to like the market, but the market shrug it off and keeping moving up. do you get sweaty palms? what do you do? >> look at rsi, relative strength, getting above 70 which is a little bit overbought so if you're looking at jumping in with both feet at these levels, a little bit extended. the market has been steadily rallying, look at the past year's performance and since march of '09 betting against the market does not work. >> jeff cox, trying to figure out how much evidence this call is that we're actually seeing a rotation out of bonds into stocks, and a lot of people are questioning it. they say the money that's moved

stocks higher has been new money, money in the sidelines, pensions, 401(k) plans. why do you say this is the worst call? >> i think we'll have to change that great rotation thing that we have h come up with before. bank of america was peddling it. the distribution is coming from money market funds, not from bonds, and the reason why i think that's the case, of course, money is not doing anything in the money markets. people are getting a little bit more confident that bullish sentiment is higher. they are taking it off the sidelines but bond is still getting money. that's still the fear trade. it's still the safe haven trade. what's doing well especially in fixed income is, yeah, you guessed it, all the high-yield stuff, the junk, the high-dividend yield, that kind of stuff. qe, for whatever it's worth, how much we can talk about it, the benefits and the problems that it's going to cause, is working to that extent. >> a rationale we've heard, bill, lately from bulls in this market has been where else are you going to put your money?

and i keep asking is that a good rationale? >> i think it's a good point when you look at the yields you're getting being so small. getting any kind of dividend play for potential upsides in the stocks you long, an excuse to move money in stocks. >> do you subscribe -- jeff says this is new money coming in. not necessarily coming out of the fear, the safe haven plays out there like the bond market. >> you haven't seen a real move yet, so to the extent we see real money come out of bonds, the fact is it hasn't really moved. >> when would you expect a big spike in rates that would actually move the needle and keep investors saying, look, i've got to be here? now, it's less competitive to be in stocks because there's the risk there where you don't have in treasuries, for example. >> i think it's going to be the fed, right? when you see the fed move off the quarter percent level. >> what's your gut? >> good question. doesn't seem like any time soon, right, so whether three months,

six months, a year from now, the signal is going to be a year or longer, but the fact is you have to prepare for the unexpected, and that's something that will take people by surprise after the fact saying why didn't we look for it ahead of time. >> even then, jeff, if we do get that rush out of bonds as the fed sort of ends qe3 or whatever it's called at that time, there's no reason to believe they will be rushing to stocks right then. will they? >> i believe that move out of bonds will be even a more panicked trade that comes out of stocks because that's when you'll start to see all of these debt issues start to catch up with it. when we start to lose faith in the fact that the fed can no longer manipulate the market and keep yields where they are, that's where we could kind of see all the money to go back to where we saw it during the crisis which would be on the sidelines. >> do you see conviction in terms of big investors putting money into taking it out of fixed income in any way and putting it into stocks? >> not a lot of conviction. haven't been seeing the big volume days.

market ratcheting higher on medium volume. i don't think anybody is rushing. guys already long are adding to positions. people aren't taking money off the table because they don't want to miss the up move. you're not seeing oh, i missed it, let's take 50% of what's sitting in cash and jump in. maybe that's what has allowed the rally because it's been a steady move. >> a lot of holding of the breath right now. thanks for joining us today. >> the answer to the question we asked and you tweeted. what is the worst market call this year? some of your responses. craig tweets out worst market call has been everybody looking for increased volatility. joseph says the worst was william blair cutting gny to market per tom, up over 15%. best call between ikeman and ackman. >> apple $1100 last year. now his feng shui 888 revision, moo shoo pork.

>> i don't get that one. >> thanks for tweeting and continue to send us your comments @cnbcclosingbell, and put them in english or something. when we come back, coming back with the closing countdown. >> just minutes away from dell and herbalife earnings and instant analysis of all the numbers here at the close of trading. >> and where in the world is phil lebeau, you ask? nearly complete with his own ultimate tesla test drive. he will join -- is he talking on the phone while he's driving? is there a cop in connecticut that needs to know about this? i know he can't hear me because he's talking on the phone right now. he'll get to his destination in the next hour unless he's stopped for talking on his phone. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. ♪

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for the dow, i guess 14,000 is the level to watch. we're up 48 points right now at 14,030, and for the s&p and the nasdaq, if we're positive for this week, it would be eight straight weeks, first time that's happened since 1967. after the bell tonight, a couple of important earnings to watch for. dell, as we've mentioned, they are looking for a profit of 39 cents on revenue of 14.12 billion. dell right now is up a penny at $13.82. what did you show, herbalife? the element they are watching and carl icahn and bill ackman will be watching this one very carefully as well. herbalife up 2.25% right now. they are looking for $1.03 in profits on revenue of $1.05 billion. peter costa. >> yes. >> this market just -- we were just talking to bill nichols as you saw from cantor